Condo deals & war impact on rates

Things are picking up in the real estate market, and it has me running in all sorts of directions. So much so, that I had to skip last week’s newsletter…my bad. 🤦‍♂️

The ‘new year’ market is in full swing and a lot more homes have come up for sale, we’ll see if there is anyone to buy them.

In this newsletter:

Thanks for being here, have a great weekend!

The data

What does it mean?

January is typically a slow month for closings as the holiday season usually leads to more deals coming together. February is usually when deals start closing that went under contract after the holidays.

The data is very similar to last year, but interest rates are almost 1% lower than they were then, which means affordability has gone up, which is a good thing. I think March will be a better indicator of the health of the market and if the market is beginning to shift in one direction or the other.

Just last week, the real estate world was buzzing with excitement. Many lenders were quoting 30-year mortgage rates around 5.99%, a psychological milestone buyers had been waiting months to see. For a brief moment, it felt like we were finally breaking back into the 5% range. But almost as quickly as the celebration started, rates reversed course. Within days, average rates climbed again to around 6.13%, reminding everyone just how quickly the mortgage market can change.

It may seem strange that a conflict halfway around the world can affect the cost of buying a home in the United States, but global events often ripple through financial markets. The recent escalation involving Iran pushed oil prices higher and increased inflation concerns, which in turn drove up yields on U.S. Treasury bonds.

Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, so when investors demand higher yields due to inflation fears or market uncertainty, mortgage rates typically move higher as well.

In this case, the spike in energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty caused investors to adjust expectations for inflation and interest rates. That shift quickly filtered into the mortgage market, pushing rates back above 6% after briefly dipping lower.

The key takeaway is that mortgage rates are extremely sensitive to news and economic expectations. They are influenced by inflation data, Federal Reserve policy, the bond market, and global events. When something unexpected happens, whether it's a geopolitical conflict, a major economic report, or a shift in oil prices, rates can move almost immediately.

That is exactly what we saw this week. One day the market was celebrating rates in the high-5% range, and just a few days later they were back above 6%. These swings can happen quickly and without much warning.

Because rates can move so quickly, timing the market perfectly is almost impossible. Instead, the smartest strategy for buyers is to be prepared before the opportunity appears.

Getting pre-qualified (or pre-approved) for a mortgage does several important things:

If rates dip again, buyers who are already pre-qualified can act quickly while others are still scrambling to get paperwork together.

Mortgage rates remain volatile in today’s environment. Global events, including the conflict involving Iran, have shown just how quickly market expectations can shift.

While we may still see periods where rates dip toward the 5% range again, the reality is that the window can open and close very quickly. For buyers thinking about entering the market, preparation matters far more than trying to perfectly predict where rates will go next.

Being pre-qualified ensures that when the right home and the right rate appear at the same time, you are ready to take advantage of the opportunity.

Rates dipped below 6% last week, until everything happened in Iran and they shot back up to 6.13%. Today though, rates did move in a positive direction and are back to where they were two weeks ago. We’ll see if this continues or if they do trend even higher.

Curious what your rate would be in today’s market? Reach out to my lending partner, Aaron Alvarez with West American Mortgage, at (602) 705-9835.

This remodeled condo unit in Sun City just had a price drop, and is now listed at $229,900, which is an amazing deal on this home that was remodeled down to the studs in 2019. Plumbing & electrical, AC & all the fixtures, doors and so on were all replaced.

13618 N. 108th Drive, Sun City, AZ 85351, 2 bed, 2 bath, 1,207 square feet.

See all the pics & info here.

Looking to be in Central Phoenix, but don’t want to spend $750k? If you don’t need much space, there are still lots of options. Including this townhome at 13th Street & Bethany Home Road.

For $250k, you get a 2 bedroom & 2 bathroom unit. Yes, the HOA dues are $567 per month, but they include all your utilities!!

A home watch client has a unit in this complex and it has a great feel to it, with lots of walking paths & great common areas.

See all the pics & details here.

Property listed by Anthony Baldwin at eXp Realty

Referrals are the backbone of any realtors business, and mine is no different. Many of you have sent your friends & family my way over the years, and it is always fun to get that call ‘they said you’re the best, so I’m calling to get your help!’

If you know anyone thinking of buying or selling in 2026, I’d love the opportunity to connect with them and see how I can help.

This week’s cool house is a bit different, but still pretty cool. This former grain elevator near the Minnesota & North Dakota border is very unique.

This is truly a 1 of kind property. If you're looking for unique, this is it. Come enjoy this repurposed grain elevator. Full kitchen with dining area, upstairs bar and lounge areas with pool table. Old school spiral playground slide is a time machine to your youth. Lower level table, booth and bar tops area. Climbing wall, two loft areas on with double queen bunk bed. Another room consisting of 4 queen beds sleeping quarters. Second level also offers 3/4 bath. This property has endless uniqueness. Currently being used as an Airbnb. Owner will provide rental history at request.

See all of the details & photos here.

If you’re tired of the Arizona summers and need to escape to something VERY different, perhaps this is it.

Property is listed by Kelly Mullaney with Park Co. Realtors

We’re reminded daily of its presence, and we’re glad to be neighbors to one of the most influential institutions in Arizona history: Luke Air Force Base.

Luke was established in 1941, just before the United States entered World War II. Originally called Litchfield Park Air Base, it was renamed in honor of Lt. Frank Luke Jr., an Arizona native and World War I flying ace known as the “Arizona Balloon Buster.” During World War II, the base trained thousands of fighter pilots, playing a critical role in the war effort.

In the decades that followed, Luke became one of the premier fighter pilot training bases in the country. It has trained pilots on aircraft ranging from the F-84 and F-100 to the F-15 and F-16, and today it is one of the primary training locations for the F-35 Lightning II. Pilots from allied nations also train there, making it an international hub for advanced fighter instruction.

Beyond its military mission, Luke shaped the development of the West Valley. The base provided stable jobs, attracted supporting industries, and influenced zoning decisions that preserved open land around it. In many ways, its presence helped prevent overdevelopment in certain corridors while fueling growth in others.

For residents of Sun City, Sun City West, and surrounding communities, the sight and sound of fighter jets overhead are part of daily life. Luke is more than a military installation. It is a long standing economic engine and a defining piece of West Valley history that continues to shape the region today.

I have family in Tennessee, and we got to talking about beach vacations, and how the Atlantic ocean beach experience is very different from the Southern California beach experience. One of the places that came up that they liked is called Folly Beach in South Carolina.

I got to looking at home listings as one does, and came across this fun one not far from the beach.

See all the pics & info here.

My friends & I went hiking in Phoenix Mountains Park, where Piestawa Peak is, and I’m always amazed at how you can go to a place that feels like a remote desert, but is in the middle of a metropolis with 5 million people.