Arrowhead Report - 3rd Quarter 2026

The real estate market, and mortgage interest rates have been in the news quite a bit lately. Lots of people are asking me, ‘how’s the market?’

Well, let’s take a look at what happened in the Arrowhead Ranch real estate market in the 3rd quarter of 2026.

The Arrowhead Ranch housing market continues to shift toward more favorable conditions for buyers, with prices softening, inventory increasing, and fewer homes going under contract compared to the past couple of years.

During the third quarter of 2026, the average sales price for homes under $1 million declined 4.28% from the previous quarter to $564,773, while the median sales price slipped to $559,900. Sales activity also slowed, with 81 homes sold compared to 97 in Q2, a decline of 16.49%.

Interestingly, homes that are selling are doing so more quickly. Average days on market dropped from 67 to 59 days, which goes back to what I have said for years, good homes at the right price will always sell. No matter the market conditions.

Looking at the bigger picture, average sales prices are virtually unchanged from Q3 2025, when they were $565,914. However, the growing number of homes available for sale, combined with fewer homes under contract compared to recent years, suggests that the balance of negotiating power is gradually shifting toward buyers.

Currently, there are 100 homes listed for sale in Arrowhead Ranch, with just 17 under contract. With approximately 3.7 months of inventory, we're not seeing an oversupplied market, but buyers certainly have more options and less pressure to make quick decisions than they did a couple of years ago.

The takeaway: Arrowhead Ranch home values have remained relatively stable over the past year, but the dynamics of the market are changing. Buyers have more choices and potentially greater negotiating leverage, while sellers face increased competition. Pricing a home correctly from the start, along with making sure it shows well, is becoming increasingly important. The days of simply putting a home on the market and expecting multiple offers are largely behind us.

Curious about your specific neighborhood? Check out the data below for the different communities here in Arrowhead Ranch.

One thing to keep in mind when looking at the data. These are small communities, and pretty small data samples, so the numbers can vary greatly. This is why I prefer to look at 90 days, even still it is a small sample.

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